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Petro-Aggression: When Oil Causes War, by Professor Jeff D. Colgan
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Oil is the world's single most important commodity and its political effects are pervasive. Jeff Colgan extends the idea of the resource curse into the realm of international relations, exploring how countries form their foreign policy preferences and intentions. Why are some but not all oil-exporting 'petrostates' aggressive? To answer this question, a theory of aggressive foreign policy preferences is developed and then tested, using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Petro-Aggression shows that oil creates incentives that increase a petrostate's aggression, but also incentives for the opposite. The net effect depends critically on its domestic politics, especially the preferences of its leader. Revolutionary leaders are especially significant. Using case studies including Iraq, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, this book offers new insight into why oil politics has a central role in global peace and conflict.
- Sales Rank: #8679924 in Books
- Published on: 2013-03-25
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.98" h x .75" w x 5.98" l, 1.40 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 328 pages
Review
"Jeff Colgan significantly expands our understanding of the relationship between oil and war, explaining the domestic politics of oil's role in enabling revolutionary leaders to pursue aggressive foreign policies. Petro-Aggression presents a clear theoretical argument, which it supports with a wealth of qualitative and quantitative data. Colgan has made a major contribution to the study of energy security."
Charles L. Glaser, The Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University
"There are hundreds of books on global security and oil. Yet it would be hard to find one as compelling and original as Petro-Aggression, which develops new insights into the foreign policies of countries that are both oil-rich and have revolutionary aims. Colgan's analysis breaks important new ground in the study of organized violence and natural resources."
Michael L. Ross, Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles
"In Petro-Aggression: When Oil Causes War, Jeff Colgan provides an indispensable starting point for researchers interested in the relationship between oil and international conflict ... he offers a theoretical foundation for future research on a topic likely to grow in importance over the next several years - both within the field of international relations and out in the "real world"."
Rosemary A. Kelanic, H-Diplo
"... this book moves the research frontier forward and will set an agenda for future work - particularly since the author has posted the replication data on his American University website."
Nils Petter Gleditsch, Journal of Peace Research
"Resource wars, including coverage of struggles over access to oil, have been the focus of many studies in recent years. This book, however, features a different angle: countries that produce significant amounts of oil that do not act aggressively to enhance their oil supplies, but instead instigate interstate wars ... Recommended. Professional collections."
A. Klinghoffer, Choice
About the Author
Jeff Colgan is an Assistant Professor at the School of International Service at American University in Washington DC, where his research focuses on international security and global energy politics. He has published work in several journals, including International Organization, the Journal of Peace Research, the Review of International Organizations and Energy Policy, and his article on petro-aggression in International Organization won the Robert O. Keohane award for the best article published by an untenured scholar. Dr Colgan has previously worked with the World Bank, McKinsey and Company, and The Brattle Group.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
solid analysis
By david sorenson
Colgan asks whether "petro-states" are more war-prone than non-oil states. He notes that while modern petro-states have initiated several wars in recent decades, some have not, like Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer. His key variable is revolutionary leaders, whom, as he notes, are more risk-prone than tradional leaders like Saudi Arabia's Al-Saudi family. Thus the combustable combination of revolutionaries like Khomeinei, Qadhafi, and Saddam Hussein and a dependency on petroleum for more than 10% of GDP are the key ingredients for war-proneness. This is a well researched book with both theoretical chapters and case studies that probe the details of petro-aggression decisions. Essential for students of war and of the Middle East.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Good thesis, but not sold on the argument
By N. Tsafos
This book is a welcome addition to the literature; as the author notes, “the academic and policy discourse about the role of oil in world politics has traditionally been dominated by a single narrative about resource competition. One contribution of this book is to highlight how narrow that narrative is.” Yet the book’s contribution comes more from its focus on the links between oil and conflict, rather than by proving the thesis that it is postulating.
The book kicks off with a big thesis: petrostates (states where oil exports exceed 10% of GDP) are more likely to initiate inter-state conflict than non-petrostates; moreover, petrostates with revolutionary governments are even more aggressive. The prima facie case for this statement comes from a powerful chart, showing that petrostates are involved in conflicts more often than non-petrostates, and, more importantly, they are significantly more likely to start conflicts. When you mix oil dependency with a revolutionary government, you get an explosive mix. Jeff Colgan also lays out a plausible causal link for this: oil income reduces domestic accountability and hence lowers the costs of foreign policy adventurism, while revolutionary governments are generally led by risk-taking individuals. So far, so good.
The trouble comes, in my mind, with the testing of the thesis. The quantitative model makes (inevitably) a number of judgment calls, which I just happen to think weaken the thesis. In particular, by treating “petrostate” as a binary variable, the model ignores how changes in a country’s oil revenues might impact its behavior. Interestingly, Mr. Colgan notes that, “it is … unlikely that there is a tight correlation between changes in oil revenues and the state’s propensity for international conflict” (p. 50). But even in the case studies in this book, one could plausibly see such correlation (for example in Libya and Iran).
The biggest problem, however, comes from a sense that the thesis is built on a very narrow empirical foundation. The core argument is that revolutionary petrostates are highly aggressive, but on closer look, it appears that Iran, Iraq and Libya account for three-quarters of all the data points. To his credit, Mr. Colgan recognizes this: “the overall above-average rate of international disputes is driven almost entirely by the small subset of revolutionary petrostates, which are extremely aggressive” (p. 73). Yet one is still left wondering whether this thesis is essentially a very elaborate way of saying that Iraq, Iran and Libya have been, at times, overly aggressive.
In fact, Mr. Colgan decided to not classify as revolutionary governments that founded a state (for good reasons, to be sure). But this decision becomes problematic for Saudi Arabia, which could plausibly be considered a revolutionary government but is not for the purposes of this book. By using Saudi Arabia to show “the difference a revolution makes,” one feels somewhat tricked by a definitional, rather than substantive, point. The same problem can be said for the case study on Venezuela where the author amasses all sorts of data points to support his claim that the country pursued an aggressive foreign policy (the oil for doctors trade with Cuba, for example). Again, one feels a slight stretch to make the point. Nor is there much explanation of how revolutionary governments mellow down (again, Iran and Libya come to mind).
Despite these shortcomings, this is an excellent book that elucidates the linkages between oil and aggressive conflict in very important and innovate ways—even if it does not quite settle the subject (at least in my mind).
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