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A revolutionary new approach for detecting and managing inherent risk
The unprecedented turmoil in the financial markets turned the field of quantitative finance on its head and generated severe criticism of the statistical models used to manage risk and predict “black swan” events. Something very important had been lost when statistical representations replaced expert knowledge and statistics substituted for causation.
Extreme Risk Management brings causation into the equation. The use of causal models in risk management, securities valuation, and portfolio management provides a real and much-needed alternative to the stochastic models used so far. Providing an alternative tool for risk modeling and scenario-building in stress-testing, this game-changing book uses causal models that help you:
- Evaluate risk with extraordinary accuracy
- Predict devastating worst-case scenarios
- Enhance transparency
- Facilitate better decision making
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Plausibility vs. Probability: Alternative World Views
- The Evolution of Modern Analytics
- Risk Management Metrics and Models
- The Future as Forecast: Assumptions Implicit in Stochastic Risk Measurement Models
- An Alternative Path to Actionable Intelligence
- Solutions: Moving Toward a Connectivist Approach
- An Introduction to Causality: Theory, Models, and Inference
- Risk Inference Networks: Estimating Vulnerability, Consequences, and Likelihood
- Securities Valuation, Risk Measurement, and Portfolio Management Using Causal Models
- Risk Fusion and Super Models: A Framework for Enterprise Risk Management
- Inferring Causality from Historical Market Behavior
- Sensemaking for Warnings: Reverse-Engineering Market Intelligence
- The United States as Enterprise: Implications for National Policy and Security
- Sales Rank: #1186245 in Books
- Published on: 2010-06-28
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.30" h x .93" w x 6.40" l, 1.28 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 304 pages
About the Author
Christina Ray is senior managing director for Market Intelligence at Omnis Inc. She has over 25 years experience in quantitative finance and is the author of The Bond Market and Think Like a Trader, Invest Like a Pro.
Most helpful customer reviews
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
good one for general audience
By LOV
This is an exceptionally clear book written by an industrial expert for the general public. The book covers a lot of topics with focus on causality and extreme risk. On the other hand, it does not teach how to measure risk, how to do causal inference, etc. It only serves to introduce those concepts. The author also seemed to differentiate between statistics and causality but, in fact, a lot of the theories in causal inference are invented by statisticians, econometricians or epidemiologists (all stat-oriented professionals) - the most well-known framework may be the Rubin Causal Model (RCM)'s counter-factual or potential-outcome approach which seemed to have been missed by the author. The author appeared to favor the Pearl Causal Model (PCM) which is a more in-depth approach to causal inference through causal diagrams and the "do-calculus", and as argued by Pearl and many AI experts, epidemiologists and philosophers, is one of the best approaches. The RCM's potential-outcome approach can also be regarded as a subset of the PCM. However, the author did not describe any of the above methods. For that reason, I cannot recommend a 5-star rating. Overall, it is a wonderful book to read if you just want to learn the concepts not the techniques.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
The Connectivist Approach
By JF
A paradigm-shattering examination of how we connect the financial and intel communities: "This alternative world is one in which plausibility rather than probability is modeled. The consequences and likelihood of events that have never before occurred but that can be reasonably anticipated (as a consequence of other events) are included in the quantitative models. Such modeling is the forte of the intelligence community and those responsible for national security, who must create metrics and construct solutions for threats that have never before occurred."
There's a good overview here as well: [...]
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Written by a real expert
By Drew Miller
I've worked with Christina Ray and am familiar with some of her path-breaking work. She is a true expert in financial risk management, at the cutting edge of developing new techniques; not some academic researcher publishing a book for resume development. If your hedge fund/money manager hasn't read and mastered this book, you probably should move your investments elsewhere.
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